Democrats inched ahead of Republicans on FiveThirtyEight’s generic congressional ballot average on August 10 — less than four months from the midterm election night.
FiveThirtyEight updated their generic congressional ballot average on Wednesday to show Democrats have a slight advantage over Republicans.
The average showed generic Democrats with an average of 44.2 percent and generic Republicans with an average of 44 percent.
The average from FiveThirtyEight looks at polls from Morning Consult, Rasmussen Reports, Ipsos, Data for Progress, and YouGov.
Republicans, who are now slightly behind the Democrats, are trying to unseat Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) from her Speakership and take back the majority in the House of Representatives.
In 2018, the Democrats took the House from the Republicans.
In 2020, after striving to win back the House, the Republicans left the Democrats with the slimmest majority in modern history and gave themselves the upper hand in the midterms.
For Republicans, winning the majority will require a net gain of only five seats in November, and much is on the line in both the House and the Senate.
For Democrats, losing either could mean the Democrat Party and President Joe Biden will have a more challenging time passing their agenda items before the next presidential election.
The revelation of Democrats leading FiveThirtyEight’s generic congressional ballot average is a warning sign for Republicans, as they are still projected to win back a majority between 12 and 35 seats in the House. For the majority of the year, Republicans have led the generic ballot, especially on the Rasmussen Reports polling where they have led all year.
However, on the Rasmussen Reports polls, Republicans have lost their overall edge while some polls — like Morning Consult and YouGov — the Democrats are now leading.