The betting market PredictIt shows bettors are shifting their attitudes for the first time since the mid-summer and now believe the Republican Party will likely take control of the U.S. Senate after the midterm elections, according to the most recent predictions.
According to the betting odds, the GOP is favored to win by 56 cents on the dollar. Meanwhile, the Democrats’ chance of securing the Senate majority are 47 cents on the dollar.
The Republican Party’s odds are up from a low of 35 cents on the dollar in late August. The GOP has not been favored to win the Senate majority since July, when markets favored Republicans at 60 cents on the dollar.
PredictIt’s odds are aligned with the most recent polling data. A Trafalgar Group poll released over the weekend found that Republicans lead Democrats on a generic congressional ballot by 5.3 percentage points. That poll also found that Democrat President Joe Biden only has a 39.1 percent approval rating.
Similarly, a Rasmussen poll released Friday found that Republicans are up seven points ahead of Democrats on a generic congressional ballot.
These numbers are a good sign for the GOP with less than three weeks until election day.
PredictIt’s markets also expect the GOP to take control of the House, with those odds currently at 86 cents on the dollar, compared to the Democrats’ 17 cents on the dollar.
Republicans need just five seats to take back control of the House, and at least one seat in the evenly-divided Senate, where Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.