Republican J.D. Vance has a four-point lead over Democrat Rep. Tim Ryan in the race to fill Ohio’s open United States Senate seat, according to the latest polling by Cygnal released on Wednesday.
The Cygnal polling found that Vance leads Ryan by four percent, 47.3 percent of the 1,438 likely general election voters to 43.2 percent, with 9.5 percent still undecided roughly three weeks before the election.
Ultimately, Noah Rudnick, the data scientist who fielded the poll, believes that Vance is boosted by Biden’s low favorables in the state, even though Tim Ryan has a slight lead with independents.
The polling found that Ryan has an eight-point lead among the independents in the state, but Vance leads 73 percent to 19 percent, with those who have an unfavorable view of President Joe Biden.
In the Buckeye State, the president’s favorability is severely underwater, with 59.8 percent viewing him unfavorably while only 37.9 percent had a favorable view of him.
Additionally, the polling from Cygnal found that only 25 percent of the likely general election voters think the country is headed in the right direction. In comparison, an overwhelming majority of 69.5 percent say the country is going in the wrong direction.
Furthermore, on the generic ballot, a Republican candidate led by over ten points with 52.5 percent of the vote, while only 41.1 percent said they would vote for the Democrats. Another 6.5 percent said they were unsure.
The polling was conducted from October 14 to 18, with 1,438 likely general election voters, and saw a 2.58 percent margin of error.
Ohio’s U.S. Senate race is critical for the Republicans’ chance to retake the majority in the 2022 midterm elections. With Ohio currently being represented by a Republican, it is crucial for the party to keep the seat.
The Senate is currently divided 50-50 between the parties, with Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris being the tie-breaking vote. Senate Republicans must hold seats in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania and net at least one seat to put the GOP back in the majority and hinder President Joe Biden’s agenda.
The Ohio Senate election, along with other races throughout the country, takes place on November 8.