Republican Abe Hamadeh holds a five-point lead over Democrat Kris Mayes in Arizona’s attorney general race, according to a poll.
The poll, which was sponsored by Arizona’s Family stations and conducted by Highground, found that 43.3 percent of likely voters are backing Hamadeh versus 38.2 percent who support Mayes. Another 17 percent of voters are undecided.
: Trump-backed Abraham Hamadeh holds lead over Kris Mayes in Arizona Attorney General Race
(R) Abraham Hamadeh 43% (+5)
(D) Kris Mayes 38%
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 19, 2022
“I do think there is a built-in bias among voters when it comes to law and order, when it comes to law enforcement, I think they tend towards Republicans,” Paul Bentz, the senior vice president of research and strategy for HighGround, told Arizona Family stations.
Hamadeh, a Trump-endorsed former Maricopa County prosecutor, leads by more than 20 percent among men, while Mayes leads with women but by a much smaller margin of 10 percent.
“She does have the slight female advantage at 45 to 35 (percent), but she’s not getting that 15 to 20 point advantage that we do see the other Democrats getting in this race,” said Bentz.
Mayes, a law professor, also leads 35.5 percent to 32.3 percent among respondents who are not affiliated with a party, but Bentz says the slim lead is not enough to carry her on election day.
“Democrats need these unaffiliated voters to break for them and in pretty sizable ways in order to win, and Mayes is just not seeing it,” Bentz explained.
Hamadeh holds a strong advantage in the older age demographics. Among respondents in the 50-64 age group, 47.5 percent are backing Hamadeh as opposed to just 32.4 percent who support Mayes. In the 65+ demographic, he holds an even bigger lead over Mayes at 55 percent to 35.6 percent.
Conversely, younger age groups seem to prefer Mayes. She has taken a nearly 12-point lead in the under-29 demographic, a 15-point lead among voters 30-39, and a nearly five-point advantage in the 40-49 group.
The poll sampled 500 likely general election voters from October 12-13 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.